Evaluating an Acquisition Target in Women’s Health
Assessing the Impact of a New Competitor Entrant
Prioritizing a Series of New Diagnostic Concepts
Valuing a Go/No-Go Clinical Development Decision
Evaluating an Acquisition Target in Women’s Health
Our client was considering the purchase of the
rights to a novel women’s health product still in
clinical development. Our client’s business
development team needed to assess quickly the
opportunity to determine an appropriate value and
price. To effectively gauge the potential of the
novel compound, the client needed to measure, in a
short period of time, physician interest through
quantitative primary research.
Our team at Integrated Insights developed and
launched a quantitative survey within two weeks of
initiating the project with the client.
Within the first week of fielding, the I2 team
delivered research findings based on 50 front line
physicians that quantified physician interest in the
target product and how that interest varied under
key scenarios (e.g., black box warning, different
prices).
The quantitative research was supplemented by Key
Opinion Leaders (KOL) interviews to identify
potential clinical or scientific roadblocks for the
product.
The research identified significant potential for
the target product in terms of expected patient
volume, but also significant downside risk.
The client team used the findings to project the
value of the asset in forecast models and ultimately
declined to purchase the asset based, in part, on
the downside risks discovered in the research.
Assessing the Impact of a New Competitor Entrant
The client had a dominant position with a first in
class treatment for a gastrointestinal disorder. A
competitor with a similar, yet unique mechanism of
action had been approved and was preparing to enter
the market. The client needed to understand the
financial impact of the new competitor to inform
resource and portfolio planning.
I2 conducted targeted quantitative market research
with gastroenterologists to project uptake of the
new product and the impact on our client’s product.
We utilized multiple techniques to translate the
physicians’ stated future use into actual market
share, e.g., using a blinded version of the client’s
existing product to calibrate responses.
We worked with the client’s long-standing forecast
model to incorporate market research data and
generate financial outputs.
The research showed that the new entrant was a
material threat to the client’s established product.
The client decided to allocate significant
additional resources to a formal defense strategy
including sales force training and development of
new promotional materials.
Prioritizing a Series of New Diagnostic Concepts
Our client needed to prioritize the development of a
number of potential new biochemical assays in the
mental health space. Initially our client’s internal
team prioritized the product concepts based solely
on the size of each of the target markets. Our
client wanted to refine further their prioritization
of the concepts by incorporating physicians’
likelihood of using and adopting the concepts.
Our team created and launched a quantitative survey
with physicians across multiple specialties and
practice settings.
The research quantified the potential use of each of
several product concepts in different patient
populations to directly inform revenue forecasts.
We assessed relative interest in different versions
of the product concepts to understand the range of
potential outcomes for key metrics such as sales.
We provided our client with detailed outputs that
could be applied directly in the client’s
forecasting models to rank the financial potential
of each concept.
Our client used the findings to re-order the
priority of the product concepts under consideration
and to allocate their resources accordingly.
Valuing a Go/No-Go Clinical Development Decision
Our client wanted to assess the opportunity for a
secondary indication in endometriosis for a product
in development. Their team had already conducted
qualitative market research in the US and had
constructed a forecast model based on their
understanding of the overall buying process and
secondary data. However, they lacked any direct
measure of interest in the novel compound and were
relying solely on benchmarks to project future
market share.
We conducted quantitative market research with
physicians treating endometriosis.
Our research measured product interest and generated
other key financial inputs for the forecast model,
such as growth rates in diagnoses, treatment rates,
market size, etc.
We worked with the client team to incorporate our
research data into their existing forecast and
valuation models.
We presented integrated market research and forecast
findings to upper management in support of a
go/no-go clinical development decision.
The research showed the product could generate an
incremental $100+ M in revenue by securing the
additional indication under consideration.
Based on this forecast and valuation, which was NPV
positive, we recommended moving forward with the
clinical program.