Effective forecasting requires an in-depth understanding of financial modeling and the ability to collect and tie together multiple data sources. Our experience as consultants, combined with our extensive work in primary and secondary research, makes us well equipped for the challenges of forecasting.

We begin our forecast projects by determining the data needed to size the market and constructing the corresponding epidemiology estimates – the foundation of a forecast model. We utilize available secondary data and identify additional data points to be captured through primary research, such as treatment rates or patient persistence. Integrating the primary and secondary data allows for a more complete and accurate view of the potential market for a product.

We also create an influence diagram to model how different stakeholders interact and impact the target product’s sales. The diagram highlights decisions and interactions that should be quantified through primary research where possible.

Developing the epidemiology estimates and influence diagrams at the start of the project, allows us to create efficient and targeted research tools.

We look to use data from multiple sources or audiences to effectively model the complex series of interactions and influences that drive a product’s market share. We account for various factors such as price sensitivity, potential prior authorization constraints, and patients’ willingness to follow a physician recommendation.

Next, we create the forecast model itself in Excel, often in parallel with the fielding of primary research. The influence diagram guides the structure of the forecast model and establishes the various inputs and uncertainties the model must accommodate.

Our forecast models are transparent and highly flexible so they can be readily revised as information and assumptions change. All of our forecast models are delivered in a user-friendly Excel format with inputs and assumptions that can be varied buy the user, allowing anyone to see the financial impact of different assumptions or decisions.

Our forecast models often incorporate key market events, such as the entrance of new competitors, loss of exclusivity of existing competitors, or additional indication, and utilize primary research or secondary data proxies to project the impact on that target product. We often also incorporate our client’s potential market entry strategies, allowing them to play out different strategies in different scenarios to understand when the strategies would be most effective.

As part of our forecasting process, we conduct sensitivity and risk analysis to understand how different assumptions or decisions impact the overall financial performance. The analysis highlights potential sources of risk as well as areas that may warrant further research.

The combination of outputs and analyses, along with the team’s ability to modify the forecast model to incorporate new or changing data, enables us to make strategic recommendations and equips our clients to make informed, financially sound decisions.